BC^3's Blog

26 Sep 2021

Deciding to grade a 2021 Reverse Proof Silver Eagle set

Coins-United States | BC^3

I was trying to decide if I should grade my 2021 Reverse Proof Silver Eagle set which is coming in the mail soon. Since I'm also learning statistics I decided to do some research. I looked up all the NGC and PCGS graded Reverse Proof Silver Eagles to see how often they get a PR70 instead of PR69 or below. I added up all the submissions and divided the number of PR 70 grades (see spreadsheet link below).I also assumed that an ungraded coin was worth about the same as a PR69, so the only grade that could be worth more than just selling the coins is a PR70. I then multiplied the percentage of PR70 with the additional value or a PR70 above a PR69 to get what is called the expected value of a submission. Basically this says that a 90% chance to win $1 is worth $0.90 while a 1% chance to win $100 is worth more ($1).The results are that PCGS has a 54.35% chance of grading PR70 and NGC has a 59.13% chance. Looking at sold recently (pre-sales of PR70 sets) vs the sales of raw sets on Ebay, PCGS PR70 adds about $350 while NGC adds about $300.This means that the expected value for PCGS is $190.36 and NGC is $177.40. Both are above the submission prices. So unless you get a set with obviously defects (you don't need to submit sealed packages), then you should submit your coins.Link to data used in this blog to determine expected value below.\/ \/ \/Data used to do find expected value of grading the 2021 ASE Reverse Proof.

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