Deciding to grade a 2021 Reverse Proof Silver Eagle set
I was trying to decide if I should grade my 2021 Reverse Proof Silver Eagle set which is coming in the mail soon. Since I'm also learning statistics I decided to do some research. I looked up all the NGC and PCGS graded Reverse Proof Silver Eagles to see how often they get a PR70 instead of PR69 or below. I added up all the submissions and divided the number of PR 70 grades (see spreadsheet link below).
I also assumed that an ungraded coin was worth about the same as a PR69, so the only grade that could be worth more than just selling the coins is a PR70. I then multiplied the percentage of PR70 with the additional value or a PR70 above a PR69 to get what is called the expected value of a submission. Basically this says that a 90% chance to win $1 is worth $0.90 while a 1% chance to win $100 is worth more ($1).
The results are that PCGS has a 54.35% chance of grading PR70 and NGC has a 59.13% chance.
Looking at sold recently (pre-sales of PR70 sets) vs the sales of raw sets on Ebay, PCGS PR70 adds about $350 while NGC adds about $300.
This means that the expected value for PCGS is $190.36 and NGC is $177.40. Both are above the submission prices.
So unless you get a set with obviously defects (you don't need to submit sealed packages), then you should submit your coins.
Link to data used in this blog to determine expected value below.\/ \/ \/
Data used to do find expected value of grading the 2021 ASE Reverse Proof.
Comments
Mike
Level 7
Don't forget the most important thing to sending it in. Protection!. Anything can happen to a coin. At least I know I have a set that cannot be made for another 25 years.. The new reverse will change in 25 years according to law. When they do they can make another set. Not until then. They can make reverse proofs. But this is the first and can't be changed till they change type two!! I also saw a 69 selling for 599.00. But to protect them from the elements have them slabed by a third party grader. The holders the coins come in are not air tight. Are you willing to take a chance. ? I'm not.Remember you charge what you want. Always ask for the original government packaging. Another point . Years ago yes you could leave them raw. However the middle t has got very cheap with packing the decline cardboard . Not yearsago.
Mike
Level 7
I'm sorry I did forget. Pinehurst sent an email to me offering 400.00 for the set. They send it in get a 70 grade and charge 700.00. That's proof enough for me to go ebay and check the raw to the graded. That's also proof to me.
Kepi
Level 6
Interesting thoughts... Can't hurt to send it in and get graded. ; )
Longstrider
Level 6
That is an interesting idea you have here. I'm not sure it holds up in the real world. These coins are graded by real people. I say anything goes then. I also do not agree with your supposition that a raw coin and a 69 are worth the same. Cool idea though. Maybe I'm wrong. Thanks. P.S. I would be happy if they just shipped my coins and quit lying to me. I know, that is way to much to ask of a government agency. No sign of your spreadsheet on your blog.
BC^3
Level 3
Sorry Longstrider. You should be able to look at it by clicking the link. It is a google spreadsheet. So maybe a google account is required to see it? Anyway, it doesn't cut and paste the cells when I tried in the blog post. So I left it as a spreadsheet link.
It's Mokie
Level 6
I think the assumption that an unslabbed ASE will be worth the same as a PF69 is a flaw, in my experience there is a price differential. But I do like your general approach. I also think the bulk submitters like the Modern Coin Marts of the world will have a higher proportion of 70s than the general public since the TPGs rely on the bulk submissions and either NGC or PCGS is not going to let the other gain the upper hand.
Mike
Level 7
What are the % to get one in a 70. And the other a 69.? Don't say it can't happen it can. I say everything goes on the first coin. If it's a 70. The other coin will be the same. Has anyone received a two coin set split 70& 69? I havent! There is no forumala. They look for many things . Can't match them up!. So you get what the grader determins. And pray he's in a good mood. Also mine go for protection. My kids are getting the collection. It's up to them. I'm happy either way. It's that simple. You have a 50- 50 chance. Use all the charts and formulas you want. It's always 50/50. You also need the total mintage of those in sets and those not. Other wise it's flawed.You need the mintages. It will !wow a big differance.
BC^3
Level 3
Very important point. I hadn't thought of that. I'm not sure there is any way to get the mix grading percentage for set.
Golfer
Level 5
Get it graded for sure. Check the surfaces carefully yourself before submission. Go over every part of the coin , then see what happens with the grade. Good luck.
Long Beard
Level 5
That's some sound judgment on your part. From one who follows both the graded examples and the market values, particularly the major auction house where the big boys go to compete on registry sets, PCGS has long had an advantage where added return is concerned. Whether that holds true long term would be anyone's guess, yet I've heard rumblings within other areas of the hobby in a negative way against them. Still, a return of proof 69 would not be all that detrimental in the long term since I don't see the series losing much in the way of popularity any time soon.
CentSearcher
Level 5
Interesting. With the price guide at that, it will be worth more than the cost to get it graded. But you also need to think whether it's really necessary to get it graded. People get their coins for one of the following 3 main reasons: to confirm its authenticity, to get a professional grade of the coin, or to be able to add the coin to their set registry. It's without any doubt authentic, and very likely it's a PR69 or 70. Because I already know both of those pieces of information, I think you should only get it graded if you want to add it to your set registry if you have one. I'm sending my first coin off to PCGS in a few days, and I'm doing it so that I can image it and add it to my PCGS set registry. Thanks for sharing, let me know how it goes!
BC^3
Level 3
If you see any error please let me know so I can fix it ASAP.